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As the NFL season approaches, nearly $30 billion is expected to be wagered on games through domestic sportsbooks, according to the American Gaming Association. This figure marks a significant milestone for the sports betting industry, which has seen rapid growth since the Supreme Court's 2018 decision allowing nationwide sports betting. However, the rate of growth is beginning to slow as online gaming is now legalized in all but four states.
The rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket is contributing to this shift. These platforms offer a different approach to sports betting, framing it as a form of financial investment. According to the American Gaming Association, these markets operate outside of state oversight, claiming federal oversight that is not equipped to regulate sports wagering. This has led to concerns about consumer protection and the loss of state tax revenue.
RotoWire reports that prediction markets are projected to trade $36.8 billion on NFL outcomes, more than doubling last season's volume. These markets are growing rapidly in states where traditional sportsbooks cannot operate, such as California and Texas.
Despite the growth in prediction markets, legal sportsbooks remain a significant part of the sports betting landscape. However, their advertising volume is declining, while prediction market ads are on the rise. This shift in advertising trends reflects the changing dynamics of the sports betting industry.