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A recent survey by Reuters/Ipsos reveals that 60% of Americans are against betting on election results through prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. This sentiment is shared across party lines, with 61% of Republicans and nearly 70% of Democrats opposing such wagers.
Prediction markets gained popularity during the 2024 presidential election, but as the midterms approach, they face increased scrutiny. The poll, conducted from September 30 to October 5, included 4,506 respondents and has a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.
While 13% of respondents support election-result betting, 24% are unsure, and 3% skipped the question, The Hill reports. In contrast, 43% oppose betting on professional sports, with 29% in favor.
CDC Gaming notes that the prediction market industry, led by Polymarket and Kalshi, allows bets on various events, raising concerns about insider trading and manipulation. Despite this, companies claim they have controls to prevent misconduct and argue their markets often forecast outcomes better than traditional polls.
A spokesperson from Kalshi criticized the poll as "biased," suggesting that leading questions influenced the results. Meanwhile, a Polymarket spokesperson stated that prediction markets provide unbiased information and are gaining recognition for their public value.
As these markets continue to grow, policymakers are debating how to regulate them, especially with the potential for corruption. Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, described the current state of election betting as "the wild west."